Bookmarked https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/09/bethesdas-multiplatform-future-is-minecraft-a-good-sign-for-skyrim/

This lines up with my assumptions. Exclusivity sucks, but it doesn't make much sense for Microsoft to make single player games for other platforms, after the dust settles and existing deals are honored. But for subscription games, Microsoft doesn't care where you play because they still get your money and you're adding value to that online space. With Game Pass and xCloud, they've been moving away from a console-focused approach, anyway. They're looking to be the platform or service you play on, regardless of the hardware.